Why the "Fully Invested Bear" Wins in This Market | Jeff deGraaf

Video Description

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk. Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade. In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does. We cover: • Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors • How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one • Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum right now • The difference between momentum markets and trend markets • Why the two-year yield tells you more than the Fed funds rate Jeff also shares his “fully invested bear” philosophy: stay invested because markets rise 62% of the time, but never stop watching for risk. Watch Jeff deGraaf’s podcast, RenMac Off-Script, here: https://www.youtube.com/@RenMacLLC Learn more about Renaissance Macro Research here: https://renmacaccess.com/ Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://tinyurl.com/5n9yw7at Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Follow Ed D’Agostino on X (Twitter): https://www.x.com/EdDAgostino Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:46 – A lot like poker 08:03 – Data junkies 14:47 – Returns-driven policy 23:08 – Tariff panic 25:42 – K-shaped economy 28:54 – Are we in a bubble? 36:53 – All the metals look good 40:58 – 62% probability of winning