新台幣低估助出口卻傷消費者?《經濟學人》:台灣該放鬆貨幣控制|經濟學人@天下 Ep.231

天下雜誌 video November 18, 2025
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天下,不只是一本雜誌,我們經營的是「信任」。 1981 年創辦,天下的使命是追求更公平、美好的社會, 用積極、前瞻、放眼天下的角度,找出問題的真相,提出解決的可能性。 我們相信,媒體在社會發展路上,扮演一束冷靜的聲音。 鏡頭是我們新的筆桿,影像是我們新的語言, 持續關注全球趨勢、科技脈動,與時事議題,幫您掌握最領先的觀念。

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聽更多在【聽天下】:https://apple.co/3Bk1zkx 下載天下雜誌APP:https://bit.ly/4cywAm8 台灣引以為傲的出口奇蹟,背後竟潛藏巨大風險! 央行數十年來持續低估新台幣,根據大麥克指數(Big Mac Index)顯示,新台幣對美元幣值被低估55%,為全球之最。台灣經常帳盈餘已飆升至GDP的16%,遠超中國的3%,但《經濟學人》警告,這項廉價貨幣政策如今已淪為昂貴而危險的時代錯誤。 最直接的代價是消費者購買力大幅縮水,自1998年來民間消費佔GDP比重暴跌20個百分點,房價更飆漲四倍。更危險的是,壽險業近一兆美元投入美債,造成巨大貨幣錯配,恐因匯率劇烈變動引發金融危機。而政策之所以持續,在於出口利益集團無法承受升值影響,以及央行上繳利潤已占政府總收入6%,擁有超常規的政治權力。 值得警惕的是,美元若貶值可能重創壽險業,川普政府也可能動用關稅迫使台灣升值。《經濟學人》直言,台灣需解開過時經濟模式,央行應學習新加坡建立長期貨幣路徑,讓普通台灣人終能享受出口奇蹟成果。 主持人:天下雜誌資深主筆 黃亦筠 主講人:金庫資本管理合夥人兼總經理 丁學文 *延伸閱讀|如何不被AI泡沫傷到?網路泡沫倖存老手都買這些「看不見的贏家」:https://lihi.cc/aFqFx *立即收聽《CEO的修煉場》:https://hi.cw.com.tw/u/jqveRdb/ *訂閱天下全閱讀:https://bit.ly/3STpEpV *意見信箱:[email protected] 製作團隊:樂祈、邱宇豪 #經濟學人 #聽天下 #天下雜誌 #新台幣 #升值 #央行 #匯率 #政策 #經常帳盈餘 #壽險業 #房價

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