李四川參選震撼政壇,若當選新北市長,侯友宜遭架空,盧秀燕被壓制,鄭麗文蔣萬安成大贏家。#鄭麗文 #蔣萬安 #盧秀燕

島嶼慢生活 December 2, 2025
Video Thumbnail
島嶼慢生活 Logo

島嶼慢生活

View Channel

About

《島嶼慢生活》帶你洞察台灣社會與全球動態的每個角落。從政治、經濟到文化,我們用獨特的島嶼視角,帶你跨越日常的框架,解讀國際與地方的微妙關係。關注熱點、探索新聞背後的深層故事,讓你快速掌握每一條大新聞。

Video Description

李四川參選震撼政壇,若當選新北市長,侯友宜遭架空,盧秀燕被壓制,鄭麗文蔣萬安成大贏家。 整件事的引爆點,是一份讓人驚掉下巴的民調。這份民調顯示,如果李四川出來選新北市長,他的支持度竟然高達45.9%!這是什麼概念?這幾乎就是一個人單挑全場的節奏。而另一邊,現任市長侯友宜拼了老命要力挺的自己人,也就是他的副市長劉和然,支持度是多少呢?你猜猜?1.6%。你沒看錯,我沒説錯,就是1.6%。這兩個數字擺在一起,已經不能用“差距”來形容了,這簡直就是天壤之別,是不同維度的碾壓。 這民調一出來,明眼人一看就明白了。這哪裏是什麼李四川對決劉和然,這分明就是黨主席鄭麗文、立法院長韓國瑜這股新興的黨中央勢力,跟侯友宜這位昔日地方霸主之間的一場“代理人戰爭”。另一份TVBS的民調更是把這層窗户紙捅得透透的:如果國民黨派出李四川,去對上民進黨呼聲最高的蘇巧慧,李四川能輕鬆大贏10個百分點;可要是換成侯友宜堅持要推的劉和然上場呢?結果是倒過來輸掉6.6個百分點。這一來一回,差了將近17個百分點!我的天,17個百分點!對於一個政黨來説,新北市可是全台灣人口最多的“天下第一都”,是戰略上絕對不能丟掉的灘頭堡。面對這麼懸殊的數字,你讓黨中央怎麼選?他們還有第二個選擇嗎? 當然了,侯友宜在新北市幹了這麼多年,他堅持要挺自己的副手劉和然,這裏面肯定有他對下屬的情分,也有希望自己的政策能夠延續下去的責任感。這都可以理解。但權力場上的邏輯,往往比人情世故要殘酷得多。當11月26日,有議員在議會里突然爆料説“劉和然的競選團隊可能要解散了”,你可別真以為這只是個小道消息。這根本就不是八卦,這是一個經過精心設計的政治“觀測氣球”。這是黨中央在向侯友宜的陣營釋放一個再清晰不過的信號:“侯友誼市長,民調我們都看見了,數字不會説謊,你該知道怎麼做了吧?是時候知難而退了。” 緊接着,劉和然出來回應説“八卦新聞不要當真”。這話表面上聽着像是在闢謠,但你仔細品品,那語氣裏透出的,是不是更像一種不甘心的掙扎?這掙扎,恐怕也正是侯友宜本人的心聲。因為侯友宜心裏比誰都清楚,一旦他同意讓劉和然退選,他讓出的,絕不僅僅是一場選舉的提名權那麼簡單。這背後,是更實在、更具體的東西。比如,他對新北各地農會、漁會的影響力;比如,他一聲令下就能動員起來的那些地方樁腳系統;再比如,新北市政府每年上千億新台幣的預算到底要怎麼花,哪個區多一點,哪個項目先做。這些,才是權力的真正面目。 你想想看,一旦市長換了人,而且換上的還是黨內另一個派系力挺的人,那這些資源就等於被人連鍋端走了。到時候,侯友宜就只剩下了一個“前市長”的空頭銜,瞬間從一個手握重兵、有實權的地方諸侯,變成了一個只剩下名望的黨內元老。所以,他必須拼死一搏,這已經不是在為劉和然爭,而是在保衞他自己最後的政治根據地。 侯友宜現在可以説是騎虎難下,進退兩難。咱們順着這個思路繼續往下推,如果黨中央的力量最終佔據了上風,民調真的變成了現實,李四川披掛上陣並且贏得了選舉,那侯友宜的下場會是什麼?四個字:地盤崩盤。甚至可能面臨更嚴重的政治“清算”。這個“崩盤”,指的就是他權力的實質性全面流失。而“清算”這個詞就更狠了。政治上的清算,可不是打打殺殺,而是新上任的市長,可以通過重新審查你過去推行的政策、花掉的預算和安排的人事,來一點一點地削弱你這位前任市長的政治遺產和聲望。 如果李四川真的上任,他背後代表的是黨中央的意志,是鄭麗文和韓國瑜的力量。他沒有任何理由,也沒有任何義務需要去維護侯友宜的歷史定位和麪子。你想想,到那個時候,侯友宜的處境該有多尷尬?他在黨內的影響力,將會被徹底清零。 這場風暴中心的殺傷力已經如此驚人,但你以為這就完了嗎?不,衝擊波還在繼續向外擴散,狠狠地撞向了另外兩位政壇的重量級人物:一位是民眾黨的柯文哲,另一位是台中的盧秀燕。 咱們先説説柯文哲。對於民眾黨來説,2026年的地方選舉,簡直就是一場決定他們是能繼續壯大,還是會泡沫化的生死存亡之戰。他們原本的劇本寫得挺好,就是讓黃國昌這種有全國性知名度的“戰神”級人物,去挑戰新北市長這個位置。他們的目標,不一定是要選上,而是在新北市這個全台灣最大的舞台上,儘可能地爭取媒體曝光、積累政治資源,從而鞏固民眾黨作為第三勢力的關鍵地位。

You May Also Like

Upgrade Your Everyday

AI-recommended products based on this video

Loading...
Kasa Smart Outdoor Smart Plug by TP-Link (KP400) - Smart WiFi Outlet with 2 Sockets, IP64 Waterproof, Works with Alexa and Google Home, 2.4GHz WiFi Required, No Hub Required, Sunset & Sunrise Offset

Kasa Smart Outdoor Smart Plug by TP-Link (KP400) - Smart WiFi Outlet with 2 Sockets, IP64 Waterproof, Works with Alexa and Google Home, 2.4GHz WiFi Required, No Hub Required, Sunset & Sunrise Offset

(28,846)
$21.99$17.99
FREE delivery Wed, Aug 20 on your first order
1K+ bought in past month
Loading...
Wireless Earbuds, Sports Bluetooth Headphones, 80Hrs Playtime Ear Buds with LED Power Display, Noise Canceling Headset, IPX7 Waterproof Earphones for Workout/Running(Black)

Wireless Earbuds, Sports Bluetooth Headphones, 80Hrs Playtime Ear Buds with LED Power Display, Noise Canceling Headset, IPX7 Waterproof Earphones for Workout/Running(Black)

(299)
$32.99
Prime
Loading...
Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth 5.4 Headphones HiFi Stereo with 4 HD Mic, 50H Playtime Bluetooth Earbuds with LED Display, IPX7 Waterproof Wireless Earphones, Touch Control Ear Buds,USB-C White

Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth 5.4 Headphones HiFi Stereo with 4 HD Mic, 50H Playtime Bluetooth Earbuds with LED Display, IPX7 Waterproof Wireless Earphones, Touch Control Ear Buds,USB-C White

(228)
$26.99
Prime
Loading...
Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Ear Buds 5.4 Mini HiFi Stereo with 4 ENC Noise Cancelling Mics Wireless Headphones, in Ear Earphones 40H IP7 Waterproof, USB C, Bluetooth Earbuds for Sports, Gym, Rose

Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Ear Buds 5.4 Mini HiFi Stereo with 4 ENC Noise Cancelling Mics Wireless Headphones, in Ear Earphones 40H IP7 Waterproof, USB C, Bluetooth Earbuds for Sports, Gym, Rose

(323)
$31.99
FREE delivery Wed, Dec 3 on your first order
500+ bought in past month
Loading...
soundcore P31i by Anker, Real-Time Adaptive Noise Cancelling, Hi-Res Sound, Translation Earbuds, 50H Playtime, Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Earphones, Spatial Audio, Fast Charging, IP55 ClimatePartner certified

soundcore P31i by Anker, Real-Time Adaptive Noise Cancelling, Hi-Res Sound, Translation Earbuds, 50H Playtime, Wireless Earbuds, Bluetooth Earphones, Spatial Audio, Fast Charging, IP55 ClimatePartner certified

(105)
$39.99
FREE delivery Thu, Nov 27
Loading...
Brita Stainless Steel Premium Filtering Water Bottle, BPA-Free, Reusable, Insulated, Replaces 300 Plastic Water Bottles, Filter Lasts 2 Months or 40 Gallons, Includes 1 Filter, Carbon - 20 oz.

Brita Stainless Steel Premium Filtering Water Bottle, BPA-Free, Reusable, Insulated, Replaces 300 Plastic Water Bottles, Filter Lasts 2 Months or 40 Gallons, Includes 1 Filter, Carbon - 20 oz.

(2,652)
$81.37$76.36
FREE delivery Sep 29 - Oct 2
Loading...
Simple Modern Filtered Water Bottle | Insulated Stainless-Steel Carbon Filter Travel Water Bottles | Reusable for Clean Drinking Water On The Go | 24oz, Sea Glass Sage

Simple Modern Filtered Water Bottle | Insulated Stainless-Steel Carbon Filter Travel Water Bottles | Reusable for Clean Drinking Water On The Go | 24oz, Sea Glass Sage

(26)
$30.13
FREE delivery Tue, Sep 23 on your first order
Loading...
FITVII Health & Fitness Tracker (Answer/Make Calls), Smart Watch with 24/7 Heart Rate and Blood Pressure, Sleep Tracking Monitor, 120+ Sport Mode Activity Tracker

FITVII Health & Fitness Tracker (Answer/Make Calls), Smart Watch with 24/7 Heart Rate and Blood Pressure, Sleep Tracking Monitor, 120+ Sport Mode Activity Tracker

(198)
$59.99
FREE delivery Sun, Aug 10
100+ bought in past month
Loading...
AYATAHA AYATAHA Smart Watch for Kids, Smartwatch Fitness Tracker for Boys Girls, Children's Activity Watch 37 Sports Modes SMS Notification, HD Full Touchscreen IP67 Waterproof, Blue

AYATAHA AYATAHA Smart Watch for Kids, Smartwatch Fitness Tracker for Boys Girls, Children's Activity Watch 37 Sports Modes SMS Notification, HD Full Touchscreen IP67 Waterproof, Blue

(55)
$41.99
PrimeFREE delivery Sat, Jun 14
Loading...
Iaret Iaret Smart Watch for Women, 1.83" HD Fitness Tracker with 4 Bands, Answer/Make Calls, Heart Rate/Sleep/SpO2/Step Tracking, 100+ Sport Modes, Android/iPhone Compatible Gift (Rose Gold)

Iaret Iaret Smart Watch for Women, 1.83" HD Fitness Tracker with 4 Bands, Answer/Make Calls, Heart Rate/Sleep/SpO2/Step Tracking, 100+ Sport Modes, Android/iPhone Compatible Gift (Rose Gold)

(42)
$59.99
FREE delivery Thu, Jun 19
100+ bought in past month
Loading...
Smart Watch for Men Women 1.8" Fitness Tracker, Bluetooth Call, DIY Dial, Heart Rate Sleep Blood Oxygen Monitor, 100+ Sports Modes, IP68 Waterproof Smartwatch for Android iPhone, Alexa Built-in

Smart Watch for Men Women 1.8" Fitness Tracker, Bluetooth Call, DIY Dial, Heart Rate Sleep Blood Oxygen Monitor, 100+ Sports Modes, IP68 Waterproof Smartwatch for Android iPhone, Alexa Built-in

(980)
$39.99
FREE delivery Sun, Sep 21
300+ bought in past month
Loading...
Hand Warmers 2 Pack, 14000mAh Rechargeable Hand Warmers, Electric Hand Warmer Reusable, Portable Power Bank USB Hand Warmers 4 Levels 8 Heating, Gifts for Raynauds Ski Golf Camping

Hand Warmers 2 Pack, 14000mAh Rechargeable Hand Warmers, Electric Hand Warmer Reusable, Portable Power Bank USB Hand Warmers 4 Levels 8 Heating, Gifts for Raynauds Ski Golf Camping

(683)
$74.08$59.47
FREE delivery Jun 13 - 18
Loading...
Hand Warmers Rechargeable, 10000mAh Electric Heated Gloves Power Bank Portable Graphene Handwarmers Pouch with 3 Levels & Double-Sided Heating for Hunting Camping Golf Xmas Gifts for Women Men Kids

Hand Warmers Rechargeable, 10000mAh Electric Heated Gloves Power Bank Portable Graphene Handwarmers Pouch with 3 Levels & Double-Sided Heating for Hunting Camping Golf Xmas Gifts for Women Men Kids

(651)
$44.99
PrimeFREE delivery Sun, Jun 15
Loading...
2Pack Rechargeable Hand Warmer, 8000mAh Electric Hand Warmer Power Bank, Portable USB-C Hand Warmer for Pocket, Reusable Hand Warmer Up to 8 hrs Each, Warm Gift for Men Women, for Hunting, Camping
Amazon's Choice

2Pack Rechargeable Hand Warmer, 8000mAh Electric Hand Warmer Power Bank, Portable USB-C Hand Warmer for Pocket, Reusable Hand Warmer Up to 8 hrs Each, Warm Gift for Men Women, for Hunting, Camping

(1,128)
$15.99
FREE delivery Sat, Jun 14 on your first order
Loading...
GTOCE Portable Charger,40000mAh Power Bank with 22.5W Fast Charging LED Digital Display Battery Pack with 6 Outputs 2 Inputs, Type C Powerbank Portable Charger for iPhone 16 pro Samsung AirPods,Black

GTOCE Portable Charger,40000mAh Power Bank with 22.5W Fast Charging LED Digital Display Battery Pack with 6 Outputs 2 Inputs, Type C Powerbank Portable Charger for iPhone 16 pro Samsung AirPods,Black

(334)
$42.99
FREE delivery Thu, Oct 16
1K+ bought in past month
Loading...
YMZ Smart Watch for Men Women, IP68 Waterproof, Bluetooth Calling, Fitness Tracker, Sleep Monitoring, 1.85'' DIY Dial, AI Built-in, 100+ Sports Modes, 7 Days Battery, Compatible with Android & iPhones

YMZ Smart Watch for Men Women, IP68 Waterproof, Bluetooth Calling, Fitness Tracker, Sleep Monitoring, 1.85'' DIY Dial, AI Built-in, 100+ Sports Modes, 7 Days Battery, Compatible with Android & iPhones

(331)
$49.99
FREE delivery Thu, Jun 19
1K+ bought in past month
Loading...
Smart Watch for Men Women 1.8" Fitness Tracker, Bluetooth Call, DIY Dial, Heart Rate Sleep Blood Oxygen Monitor, 100+ Sports Modes, IP68 Waterproof Smartwatch for Android iPhone, Alexa Built-in

Smart Watch for Men Women 1.8" Fitness Tracker, Bluetooth Call, DIY Dial, Heart Rate Sleep Blood Oxygen Monitor, 100+ Sports Modes, IP68 Waterproof Smartwatch for Android iPhone, Alexa Built-in

(980)
$39.99
FREE delivery Sun, Sep 21
300+ bought in past month
Loading...
Smart Watch for Men Women with Bluetooth Call, Alexa Built-in, Heart Rate & Sleep Monitor, 1.83" DIY Dial Fitness Watch with 100+ Sport Modes, IP68 Waterproof, Compatible with Android iOS

Smart Watch for Men Women with Bluetooth Call, Alexa Built-in, Heart Rate & Sleep Monitor, 1.83" DIY Dial Fitness Watch with 100+ Sport Modes, IP68 Waterproof, Compatible with Android iOS

(182)
$49.99
FREE delivery Fri, Oct 31
2K+ bought in past month
Loading...
Smart Watch for Men Women with Bluetooth Call, Alexa Built-in, Heart Rate & Sleep Monitor, 1.83" DIY Dial Fitness Watch with 100+ Sport Modes, IP68 Waterproof, Compatible with Android iOS
Best Seller

Smart Watch for Men Women with Bluetooth Call, Alexa Built-in, Heart Rate & Sleep Monitor, 1.83" DIY Dial Fitness Watch with 100+ Sport Modes, IP68 Waterproof, Compatible with Android iOS

(142)
$44.99
FREE delivery Tue, Oct 21
Loading...
Hydroponics Growing System Indoor Garden - Herb Garden with Grow Light, 15 Pods Stainless Steel Indoor Garden Kit, Auto Timer, Gardening Gift for All Ages

Hydroponics Growing System Indoor Garden - Herb Garden with Grow Light, 15 Pods Stainless Steel Indoor Garden Kit, Auto Timer, Gardening Gift for All Ages

(24)
$206.57$200.61
FREE delivery Jun 13 - 17
Loading...
Umbra Triflora Hanging Planter for Window, Indoor Herb Garden, Set of 5, White/Black

Umbra Triflora Hanging Planter for Window, Indoor Herb Garden, Set of 5, White/Black

(7,808)
$71.52
PrimeFREE delivery Sat, Jun 14
Loading...
Large Hydroponics Growing System 14 Pods, Indoor Herb Garden with LED Grow Light, 5L Water Tank, Hydroponic Grow Kit with 3 Auto-Timers, Rotatable Light Panel and Child Lock for Home School Gardening

Large Hydroponics Growing System 14 Pods, Indoor Herb Garden with LED Grow Light, 5L Water Tank, Hydroponic Grow Kit with 3 Auto-Timers, Rotatable Light Panel and Child Lock for Home School Gardening

(119)
$167.81
FREE delivery Jun 16 - 20
Loading...
Hanging Planter Hanging Plant Holder, 6 Inch 4 Indoor Plant Pots, Wall/Window Plant Hanger Indoor Herb Garden

Hanging Planter Hanging Plant Holder, 6 Inch 4 Indoor Plant Pots, Wall/Window Plant Hanger Indoor Herb Garden

(269)
$35.99$28.90
PrimeFREE delivery Sat, Jun 14
Loading...
Ninja Air Fryer Pro 5-in-1, 5 QT Capacity, Air Fry, Bake, Roast, Reheat, and Dehydrate, Air Crisp Technology, Nonstick Basket & Crisper Plate, Grey, AF142C

Ninja Air Fryer Pro 5-in-1, 5 QT Capacity, Air Fry, Bake, Roast, Reheat, and Dehydrate, Air Crisp Technology, Nonstick Basket & Crisper Plate, Grey, AF142C

(650)
$100.99
FREE delivery Thu, Oct 16
500+ bought in past month
Loading...
Glass Oil Sprayer for Cooking, 180ml Olive Oil Sprayer Bottle with Brush, Olive Oil Spray Mister, Kitchen Gadgets Accessories for Air Fryer, Canola Oil Spritzer (GREY)

Glass Oil Sprayer for Cooking, 180ml Olive Oil Sprayer Bottle with Brush, Olive Oil Spray Mister, Kitchen Gadgets Accessories for Air Fryer, Canola Oil Spritzer (GREY)

(2,436)
$7.99
FREE delivery Mon, Jun 16 on your first order
Loading...
Hi.FANCY Portable Laptop Stand with Dual Cooling Fans for 14-17inch Laptops, Grey, 23.5 x 25.9 x 0.95cm

Hi.FANCY Portable Laptop Stand with Dual Cooling Fans for 14-17inch Laptops, Grey, 23.5 x 25.9 x 0.95cm

(0)
$36.99
FREE delivery Aug 18 - 28
Loading...
Laptop Stand for Desk, Adjustable Laptop Riser ABS+Silicone Foldable Portable Laptop Holder, Ventilated Cooling Notebook Stand for 10-15.6” Laptops,Tablet-Black

Laptop Stand for Desk, Adjustable Laptop Riser ABS+Silicone Foldable Portable Laptop Holder, Ventilated Cooling Notebook Stand for 10-15.6” Laptops,Tablet-Black

(11,679)
$14.99
FREE delivery Sat, Jun 14 on your first order
500+ bought in past month
Loading...
JETech 5 in 1 Case for Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra 5G with 2-Pack Each Tempered Glass Screen Protector and Camera Lens Protector, Non-Yellowing Shockproof Bumper Phone Cover (Clear)

JETech 5 in 1 Case for Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra 5G with 2-Pack Each Tempered Glass Screen Protector and Camera Lens Protector, Non-Yellowing Shockproof Bumper Phone Cover (Clear)

(197)
$15.99
FREE delivery Sat, Jun 14 on your first order
100+ bought in past month
Loading...
TAURI for iPhone 17 Pro Max Case 6.9" with 1-Pack Screen Protector, Camera Lens Full Protection, Military-Grade Protection, Shockproof Transparent Back Bumper Phone Cover - Clear Global Recycled Standard

TAURI for iPhone 17 Pro Max Case 6.9" with 1-Pack Screen Protector, Camera Lens Full Protection, Military-Grade Protection, Shockproof Transparent Back Bumper Phone Cover - Clear Global Recycled Standard

(0)
$10.76
FREE delivery Thu, Oct 16 on your first order
2K+ bought in past month
Loading...
TAURI for iPhone 17 Pro Case 6.3" with 1-Pack Screen Protector, Camera Lens Full Protection, Military-Grade Protection, Shockproof Transparent Back Bumper Phone Cover - Clear Global Recycled Standard
Best Seller

TAURI for iPhone 17 Pro Case 6.3" with 1-Pack Screen Protector, Camera Lens Full Protection, Military-Grade Protection, Shockproof Transparent Back Bumper Phone Cover - Clear Global Recycled Standard

(61,696)
$10.76
Prime
2K+ bought in past month
Loading...
JOINPAYA 1Set Rechargeable Hand Warmer Hand Heater for Winter Heating Levels Compact

JOINPAYA 1Set Rechargeable Hand Warmer Hand Heater for Winter Heating Levels Compact

(0)
$9.29
FREE delivery Jun 20 - Jul 4
Loading...
Shakven Rechargeable Hand Warmer | Cute Comfortable Portable Hand Warmers,Ergonomic Adjustable Energy-Efficient Small Heater for Travel, Outdoor, Winter

Shakven Rechargeable Hand Warmer | Cute Comfortable Portable Hand Warmers,Ergonomic Adjustable Energy-Efficient Small Heater for Travel, Outdoor, Winter

(0)
$26.93
FREE delivery Jun 19 - Jul 2
Loading...
OCOOPA IP45 Waterproof Hand Warmer Rechargeable, Up to 15hrs Heat,10000mAh Durable Quick Charge Electric Hand Heater, PD Compatible, 3 Levels for Outdoors, Heavy Duty, H01-PD PRO

OCOOPA IP45 Waterproof Hand Warmer Rechargeable, Up to 15hrs Heat,10000mAh Durable Quick Charge Electric Hand Heater, PD Compatible, 3 Levels for Outdoors, Heavy Duty, H01-PD PRO

(50)
$39.99
PrimeFREE delivery Sat, Jun 14
Loading...
OCOOPA IP45 Waterproof Hand Warmer Rechargeable, Up to 15hrs Heat,10000mAh Durable Quick Charge Electric Hand Heater, PD Compatible, 3 Levels for Outdoors, Heavy Duty, H01-PD PRO

OCOOPA IP45 Waterproof Hand Warmer Rechargeable, Up to 15hrs Heat,10000mAh Durable Quick Charge Electric Hand Heater, PD Compatible, 3 Levels for Outdoors, Heavy Duty, H01-PD PRO

(649)
$39.99
PrimeFREE delivery Sat, Jun 14