Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap
Predictive History
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In his Foundation series, Isaac Asimov proposed that the science of "psycho-history" will help humanity understand its past, predict its future, and control its present. This channel is dedicated to exploring if "psycho-history" is indeed possible. This channel seeks to answer the following three questions: 1. What models, theories, and paradigms help us best understand world history? 2. What does history teach us about our current predicament? 3. How much of the future can be predicted?
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In his May 29, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake: If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran's mountainous terrain. The American invasion would be similar to Athens' invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described in Thucydides' The Peloponnesian War. Despite its initial successes, the Athenians couldn't re-supply themselves, and their entire expedition was wiped out. This disastrous defeat turned the war in Sparta's favor, and spelled the downfall of the Athenian empire. Could the American empire in Iran suffer the same fate as the Athenian empire in Sicily?
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