How Markiplier got the LUCKIEST FNAF playthrough in history

Video Description

Today, we are going to explore Markiplier's second playthrough of the first FNAF game, but this time, I am going to focus mainly on Bonnie, the dude who literally ruined Mark's run because of his absurd RNG However, since he also got Golden Freddy encounter on night 3, Bonnie's insane RNG sequence turned this into one of, if not the most LUCKIEST FNAF PLAYTHROUGH in history, and I mean it, I haven't seen any other videos or footage of someone having a playthrough with an RNG sequence as crazy as Markiplier had over here This was one of the more fun videos I have ever made, because back then I was so confused and fascinated by how and why Bonnie throws Mark off like that, but growing up, and learning a little bit more math, I can share my knowledge and explain what Bonnie did exactly to bully Mark so badly! Hey, if you are still reading, this is my second video where I use my voice to speak, I know that my accent is weird, but I am trying my best to make it sound good, so you guys don't get confused, for extra measures, this video has manual English subtitles made by me in case there are some parts you can't understand my voice properly ----------------- *CLARIFICATIONS* The first binomial probability DOES NOT AFFECT THE REST OF THE PROBABILITIES AFTERWARDS The second probability (Bonnie hitting 3 moves in a row) ALSO DOES NOT AFFECT THE REST OF THE PROBABILITIES AFTERWARDS - At 10:30, I mentioned overflow, but didn’t explain what the engine does afterwards. 100000 in a 16‑bit space (65536) overflows to 34464. The engine then approximates this against the 65536 divisor. In practice, 1/34464 is closest to 2/65536, which simplifies to 1/32768. That's why Golden Freddy’s true chance is 1/32768 per second. For a deeper dive, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcPfQFBwzfU The "1 in 153,077,761,418 chance" in the video comes from multiplying Bonnie's absurd RNG chain by Golden Freddy’s per‑second odds, which is just instantaneous framing But if you want a session-accurate math, we use the entire video, so Mark plays across three nights, so we apply the formula: 1 - (1 - 1/32768) ^ duration 1. Night 2 (where Bonnie’s assassination plan killed him): 509 seconds, so that's around 1.54% 2. Night 2 again (the winning run): 535 seconds, but we will be using 534 because he cannot appear at the last second of the night, so that's around 1.62% 3. Night 3 (Golden Freddy appeared 73 seconds into the night): 73 seconds, so that's around 0.223% Given the exact windows in Mark's footage, the chance of seeing at least one Golden Freddy in those segments is about 3.4% For Bonnie, I should have taken a broader perspective. I didn’t take into account that Bonnie has multiple opportunities for that 1 in 4.67M action to occur. It can happen on any of the three nights But imagine if we keep 1 in 4.67M from Bonnie, the exact sequence in the video (Bonnie's early aggression - 2 minutes camping - Golden Freddy encounter) has approximately 1 in 136M chance, not an accurate number, but it tells that it's way more common than what the video says, and this is where I figured out the biggest flaw with all my calculations, I neglected so much factors, this was my first time approaching statistics, but that doesn't excuse what I did Does this make the comparison with Backseat Streams irrelevant? Maybe I would say that it's a different metric. Backseat's calculation is solid for his event because he uses multi-night totals, this one analyzes the rarity of a single, footage-conditioned moment So if we're talking pure Golden Freddy odds, then Backseat wins However, Markiplier's run still has something uniquely legendary (such as Golden Freddy appearing at 87% power, perfect timing that fits bite of 87), and also things like giving Yellow bear the name that we all know (Golden Freddy) People are right to believe that the comparison is unfair, and I agree, both are rare, but they're rare in different ways Overall, I believe that my math is much more accurate this time, but still not perfect, and doesn't excuse anything, however I believe even if all the maths are wrong, I think the strength of this video is that it shows the funny Bonnie moment Markiplier had. I think that's what most of us came here for, but still, this has been a learning experience for me to dive deeper into the technical stuff. Thanks for all the criticism! ----------------- Music used (in order): 1. Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria Simulator - Just Add Water 2. FNAF Ultimate Custom Night - Hibernating Evil 3. Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria Simulator - 240 Bits Per Mile 4. D1 - I still feel as though I am me Video Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 0:14 - Beginning of the video 0:39 - Bonnie's suspicious RNG sequence 1:50 - How Bonnie's AI works 2:13 - Analyzing Bonnie's sequence 6:02 - The moment that we all know 8:43 - Aftermath of Bonnie 9:26 - Golden Freddy?? 10:12 - Golden Freddy's chance 10:43 - The big number reveal 11:39 - Extra information 12:25 - Closing thoughts / Outro