Is OpenAI's o3 AGI? Zvi Mowshowitz on Early AI Takeoff, Mechanize launch, & Rising p(doom)

Video Description

In this episode of the Cognitive Revolution podcast, the host Nathan Labenz is joined for the record 9th time by Zvi Mowshowitz to discuss the state of AI advancements, focusing on recent developments such as OpenAI's O3 model and its implications for AGI and recursive self-improvement. They delve into the capabilities and limitations of current AI models in various domains, including coding, deep research, and practical utilities. The discussion also covers the strategic and ethical considerations in AI development, touching upon the roles of major AI labs, the potential for weaponization, and the importance of balancing innovation with safety. Zvi shares insights on what it means to be a live player in the AI race, the impact of transparency and safety measures, and the challenges of governance in the context of rapidly advancing AI technologies. Nathan Labenz's slide deck documenting the ever-growing list of AI Bad Behaviors: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mvkpg1mtAvGzTiiwYPc6bKOGsQXDIwMb-ytQECb3i7I/edit#slide=id.g252d9e67d86_0_16 Upcoming Major AI Events Featuring Nathan Labenz as a Keynote Speaker https://www.imagineai.live/ https://adapta.org/adapta-summit https://itrevolution.com/product/enterprise-tech-leadership-summit-las-vegas/ SPONSORS: Box AI: Box AI revolutionizes content management by unlocking the potential of unstructured data. Automate document processing, extract insights, and build custom AI agents using cutting-edge models like OpenAI's GPT-4.5, Google's Gemini 2.0, and Anthropic's Cloud 3.7 Sonnet. Trusted by over 115,000 enterprises, Box AI ensures top-tier security and compliance. Visit https://box.com/ai to transform your business with intelligent content management today Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers next-generation cloud solutions that cut costs and boost performance. With OCI, you can run AI projects and applications faster and more securely for less. New U.S. customers can save 50% on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking by switching to OCI before May 31, 2024. See if you qualify at https://oracle.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) About the Episode (06:08) Introduction and Overview (06:46) Discussing AGI and Recursive Self-Improvement (09:21) Evaluating AI Capabilities and Limitations (14:58) AI in Scientific Research and Practical Applications (Part 1) (24:05) Sponsors: Box AI | Shopify (27:53) AI in Scientific Research and Practical Applications (Part 2) (28:06) Challenges in AI Automation and Integration (Part 1) (39:37) Sponsors: NetSuite | Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) (42:19) Challenges in AI Automation and Integration (Part 2) (55:36) Utility of Hyper Parameters (56:30) AI's Impact on Science (57:35) Federal Funding and University Models (01:01:47) AI in Coding and Software Development (01:12:12) Mechanize and Automating Mundane Work (01:18:58) Super Intelligence and Its Implications (01:39:57) The Complexity of Influence and Power (01:41:06) Election Dynamics and Super Intelligence (01:42:27) AI's Role in Decision Making and Governance (01:44:40) Understanding Super Intelligence and Its Modalities (01:48:46) Challenges in AI Alignment and Governance (01:51:55) The Future of AI and Human Control (01:58:57) Global AI Players and Their Strategies (02:10:44) China's AI Landscape and Challenges (02:20:40) Evaluating AI Companies and Their Potential (02:25:28) Elon's Misconceptions About AI (02:26:03) Grok and Gemini 2.5 Pro: A Comparison (02:29:24) Meta and XAI: Organizational Challenges (02:32:16) Philanthropic's Recent Work and Public Statements (02:39:54) Google DeepMind's Approach and Challenges (02:44:02) OpenAI's Strategic Moves and Controversies (02:50:58) The Ethics of AI Weaponization (03:03:09) Virtuous Actions in AI Development (03:08:14) Outro