2026, la Bascule des BRICS? L'analyse géopolitique de Gunter Pauli!

Scanderia December 22, 2025
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Avec leurs extensions récentes comme Égypte, Éthiopie, Iran, Émirats arabes unis et Arabie saoudite, les BRICS redessinent les équilibres mondiaux. En 2026, ce bloc représente plus de 45 pour cent de la population planétaire et près de 35 pour cent du produit intérieur brut global, surpassant le G7 en croissance projetée. Les projections indiquent une part de 36,6 pour cent du produit intérieur brut mondial à parité de pouvoir d'achat d'ici 2028 pour les BRICS, contre 27,8 pour cent pour le G7. Cette ascension s'appuie sur une coopération renforcée en économie, sécurité et échanges culturels. La présidence indienne en 2026 promet des avancées en dédollarisation et en promotion des monnaies locales, avec un sommet à Delhi qui pourrait inviter des États satellites des États-Unis, défiant l'hégémonie occidentale. Les tensions géopolitiques, comme les sanctions contre la Russie, accélèrent ces dynamiques, poussant vers une autonomie accrue face aux pressions extérieures. VENTES DE GAZ LIQUÉFIÉ RUSSE À LA CHINE Les exportations russes de gaz naturel liquéfié vers la Chine atteignent des records en novembre 2025, dépassant l'Australie pour devenir le deuxième fournisseur après le Qatar. Gazprom livre 38 milliards de mètres cubes par jour via le gazoduc Force sibérienne, bien plus que vers l'Europe entière. Malgré les sanctions occidentales, ces ventes ignorent les risques, alimentant l'économie chinoise à bas prix. La Russie a supplanté l'Arabie saoudite comme premier exportateur de pétrole vers la Chine en 2023, avec des paiements en roubles et yuans. Cette alliance énergétique renforce les piliers des BRICS. Les acheteurs chinois revendent parfois ce gaz à l'Europe à des prix gonflés, soulignant l'inefficacité des sanctions. En 2026, ces flux devraient s'intensifier, stabilisant les BRICS face aux volatilités occidentales et favorisant une restructuration des liens internationaux vers le Sud global. SITUATION EN AFRIQUE DU SUD L'Afrique du Sud joue un rôle pivot dans les BRICS, représentant l'Afrique et défendant les intérêts du Sud global. Sous la présidence de Cyril Ramaphosa, le pays résiste aux pressions pour diluer son influence, comme lors des oppositions à l'invitation du Maroc. Des voix internes louent l'héritage de Jacob Zuma pour avoir intégré l'Afrique du Sud aux BRICS. Cependant, des défis persistent : attaques contre les fermes, discriminations économiques et déni de persécutions culturelles. Les élections locales de 2026 pourraient menacer cette position si des partis d'opposition remportent la victoire, risquant un retrait du bloc. Malgré cela, l'Afrique du Sud bénéficie de projets conjoints via la Nouvelle banque de développement, et sa croissance projetée à 1,2 pour cent en 2026 contribue à l'ascension collective. Les BRICS offrent une alternative aux shinikizos occidentaux, promouvant une industrialisation durable et une recalibration des routes commerciales. MERCOSUR ET UNION EUROPÉENNE Le Mercosur, incluant Brésil, Argentine, Uruguay, Paraguay et Bolivie, avance dans des négociations avec l'Union européenne, malgré des résistances internes comme les protestations agricoles en France et Italie. Cet accord, en gestation depuis plus de vingt ans, vise à élargir les préférences commerciales, couvrant plus de produits. Géopolitiquement, il repositionne le Brésil entre l'Europe et l'Asie, évitant une dépendance excessive aux BRICS tout en favorisant le multilatéralisme. Le Brésil, pilier des BRICS, voit cet accord comme une opportunité pour diversifier ses partenariats, avec des avancées récentes vers Singapour, EFTA, Émirats arabes unis, Canada et Inde. Cependant, les tensions persistent : le Mercosur reçoit 62,1 pour cent des investissements étrangers en Amérique du Sud, et son commerce intra-bloc atteint 49 milliards de dollars en 2024. En 2026, une signature pourrait contrer l'influence croissante des BRICS en ancrant des économies sud-américaines vers l'Ouest, mais des ultimatums brésiliens soulignent les risques de blocage, favorisant potentiellement une orientation vers les BRICS. PERSPECTIVES POUR 2026 En 2026, les BRICS consolident leur domination, avec une croissance moyenne supérieure au G7 : Éthiopie à 7,1 pour cent, Inde à 6,2 pour cent, Chine à 4,2 pour cent. L'introduction d'une unité adossée à l'or à 40 pour cent accélère la dédollarisation, tandis que la SCO renforce l'Eurasie contre les interférences. L'Europe, réduite à un marché consommateur dépendant, voit ses importations de gaz russe chuter à zéro d'ici 2025, se tournant vers le gaz de schiste américain coûteux. Les BRICS, produisant 40 pour cent du pétrole mondial, attirent plus de trente nations intéressées. #Géopolitique #GunterPauli #idrissaberkane Les deux prochaines Formations Live du 6 et du 9 janvier 2026 : https://bit.ly/44zeX3m La Learning Expedition du 4 au 13 janvier 2026 : https://bit.ly/490lGo9 Et notre concours de Noël pour gagner une place à bord : https://www.scanderia.com/jeu-concours

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