Momentum isn't Magic - Hot Hand Analysis

Video Description

Momentum is magic…right? This…was a massive project…and trip. Like many, I had grown up reading studies on “the hot hand”, and it seemed as though every legitimate study had proven one thing…it didn’t exist. Even today, when one searches “the hot hand” they are met with countless articles, studies, and statisticians touting that it is a cognitive illusion. Momentum is a form of witchcraft for the blue-collared, less civilized sports fans. The guys “who don’t get the numbers”. The hot hand fallacy is the belief that a person who has experienced success in a random event has a higher probability of future success in similar events. This concept often surfaces in sports, where players or teams on a winning streak are thought to be "hot" and more likely to continue their success…but it is also a popular form of investing. In the past decade, there has been a fair amount of research that has completely flipped this fallacy…in this video, I wanted to discuss the history of streak shooting and do my best to accurately lay out the statistical errors of previous giants. Special thanks to Joshua Miller, Adam Sandjuro, Marc Leeb, and Ben Cohen (author of “The Hot Hand”). Additionally, Marc and I created a rudimentary (but fun) nightly hot hand… Hope you enjoy…and take something from this. I know I did. Citations “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On Misperception of Random Sequences” (1985), (Gilovich, Vallone, Tversky) “The Hot Hand: A New Approach to an Old “Fallacy” (2013), (Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz, Stein) "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy" (2014), (Miller, Sanjurjo) "Is the Belief in the Hot Hand a fallacy in the NBA Three Point Shootout?" (2015), (Miller, Sanjurjo) Books The Hot Hand: The Mystery and Science of Streaks (2020) (Cohen) “Thinking Fast, and Slow” “Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won” (2013), (Wortheim and Jacob) Chapters 00:00 The Science of Streaks… 03:30 A New Spaniard Study 07:30 Heating Up… 10:33 A Coin Flip Simulation (Error Explained) 14:58 The Correction…and a lot more heat. 18:14 The Streakiest NBA Shooter? 19:50 Our Supercomputer