o3 breaks (some) records, but AI becomes pay-to-win

Video Description

A green card, o3 vs Gemini 2.5, 6 Benchmarks and a whole bunch of my thoughts on what on earth is happening in AI, from here to 2030. Plus, how AI is becoming pay-to-win, and why. Crazy times, 14 mins probably wasn’t enough. https://app.grayswan.ai/ai-explained AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 00:33 - FictionLiveBench 01:37 - PHYBench 02:14 - SimpleBench 02:54 - Virology Capabilities Test 03:13 - Mathematics Performance 04:29 - Vision Benchmarks 05:43 - V* and how o3 works 06:44 - Revenue and costs for you 08:54 - Expensive RL and trade-offs 09:40 - How to spend the OOMs 13:27 - Gray Swan Arena Green Card: https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/25/an-openai-researcher-who-worked-on-gpt-4-5-had-their-green-card-denied/ PHYBench: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.16074Virologytest: https://www.virologytest.ai/ How o3 Vision Works: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.14135 https://x.com/sainingxie/status/1912570624523829573 Visual puzzles: https://neulab.github.io/VisualPuzzles/ Fiction Bench: https://x.com/ficlive/status/1912863028141244850 https://geobench.org/ https://simple-bench.com/ AIME 2025: https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/ USAMO: https://x.com/mbalunovic/status/1914398518896193747 NaturalBench: https://linzhiqiu.github.io/papers/naturalbench/ Where’s Waldo: https://uk.pinterest.com/pin/492792384225896298/ IMO and AlphaProof:https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/ Crazy Revenue: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-forecasts-revenue-topping-125-billion-2029-agents-new-products-gain?rc=sy0ihq Number of Users: https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/googles-gemini-user-numbers-revealed-court?rc=sy0ihq Subscriptions pay to win: https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulmonckton/2025/04/23/google-leak-reveals-new-gemini-ai-subscription-levels/ GPU Trade-offs: https://x.com/sama/status/1915098951067554030 RL Scale-up Amodei: https://www.darioamodei.com/post/on-deepseek-and-export-controls Log-linear Returns: https://x.com/bobmcgrewai/status/1895228291981943265 2030 Scaling: https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 Model Size: https://x.com/slow_developer/status/1874554473256997201 Adam on AGI: https://x.com/TheRealAdamG/status/1913998366632968381 Papers on Patreon: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.01839 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.13837 Chollet Quote: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1912934762580447447 OpenSim: https://opensim.stanford.edu/ Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/