The Trade No One Sees: Tesla vs Micron

Video Description

Learn more at https://www.rebellionaire.com/ Micron is about to be more profitable than Tesla — and almost nobody sees it coming. We think Micron will generate more net income in its next quarter alone than Tesla will in any single quarter through 2030. That's not a knock on Tesla — we're bulls on robo taxi and Optimus — it's about putting Micron's numbers in context. Memory has always been a commodity cycle. Build factories, wait for demand, margins spike, then crash. The market is pricing Micron at a 4x forward PE ratio because it expects that crash to come. We think this time is fundamentally different. Here's why: memory per unit of compute is rising exponentially. OpenAI tried to corner the market. A Google executive was reportedly fired for failing to secure enough memory for their TPU v7 chips. Microsoft is experiencing shortages. Customers are only receiving about two-thirds of the memory they're asking for — and that's before Vera Rubin has even scaled, and before AI5 chips hit millions of Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots. We walk through our financial model with conservative assumptions — gross margins declining, growth slowing — and still get to roughly a 3x from today's price. At a PEG ratio of 0.05, it's trading at a twentieth of what a normal growth stock commands. Timestamps: 0:00 — The controversial claim 0:19 — Elon's memory comments 0:42 — Memory as a commodity / boom-bust cycles 1:21 — Micron's 4x PE ratio explained 2:25 — The memory shortage is real (OpenAI, Google, Microsoft) 3:10 — Edge inference: Tesla's AI chips 4:26 — Hardware 3 → 4 → AI5: a 9x memory jump 5:25 — Data center memory: H100 to Vera Rubin (30x increase) 6:43 — Dylan Patel: smartphones getting crushed by the shortage 7:44 — Customers only getting 2/3 of the memory they need 8:23 — Micron's most recent quarter: the best we've ever seen 10:27 — The stock fell after monster earnings — why? 12:39 — Walking through the financial model 23:41 — The Tesla comparison 32:08 — If you believe in the AI future, how do you invest in it? 32:26 — First principles vs. analogy: why the bear case fails 33:54 — Jevons Paradox and the PEG ratio Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. https://www.hffinancial.com/disclaimer As of April 2nd, 2026 clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Micron Technologies ($MU) stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security. Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines. Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.