Why did experts fail to predict Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Video Description

I discuss why so many experts failed to predict the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We must learn from this experience and improve our IR theories so we can do better next time. As someone who got the analysis more or less right, I feel I have a contribution to make to the discussion – both about why so many experts got it wrong, but also about what it meant to get it right in the first place. 0:00 Intro 0:50 Failure to predict Russia's invasion 4:42 Overestimating Russia 5:39 Who was right? 6:50 Excuses get in the way of learning 7:21 IR theories are inadequate 8:05 Aspects of getting it right 9:00 What I said back then 10:53 Mistake 1: Not understanding Russia 11:27 Putin had already won? 12:52 Mistake 2: Misunderstanding rationality 14:47 Putin does not understand Ukraine 15:32 Putin as a strategic genius 16:46 A good debate Report by Eliot Cohen and Phillips O'Brien: "The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure" https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-ukraine-war-study-analytic-failure My article in RÆSON from 12 February 2024: "Anders Puck Nielsen: Pas på med optimismen. Det peger mod krig i Ukraine, og vi skal tænke dilemmaerne igennem nu" https://www.raeson.dk/2022/anders-puck-nielsen-pas-paa-med-optimismen-det-peger-mod-krig-i-ukraine-og-vi-skal-taenke-dilemmaerne-igennem-nu/ The full interview with John Mearsheimer from 15 February 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcE Subscribe to newsletter and support the channel: https://www.logicofwar.com/