أربيل تفرض إرادتها على بغداد في معركة النفط والرواتب

الدكتور عمر عبد الستار محمود May 31, 2025
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مرحباً بكم مجدداً في عدسات سياسية مع خبير العلاقات الدولية الدكتور عمر عبد الستار—تحليلات سياسية للأحداث التي تؤثر على المشهد الإقليمي والعالمي. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgA99v83AxMtokL9VjBa-Y9JyRDsLvOEJ ─────────────────────────────────── لا تفوتوا مشاهدة فيديو الأمس: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7UY8ck7I2g&list=PLgA99v83AxMtokL9VjBa-Y9JyRDsLvOEJ&index=2 📰 • أربيل تفرض إرادتها على بغداد في معركة النفط والرواتب • ‎فرضت اربيل ارادتها على بغداد في اخر محطة من محطات العلاقة والقراءة تقول نموذج اربيل سينتصر. سؤالك عميق ومهم جدًا، وفعلاً يعكس لحظة حساسة في تاريخ العراق والمنطقة. العلاقة بين أربيل (إقليم كردستان العراق) وبغداد (الحكومة الاتحادية) تمر بتعقيدات متجددة، لكنها أيضًا تحمل مؤشرات على إمكانيات تسوية أو على الأقل “إدارة أزمة” إذا صح التعبير. الاتجاهات الحالية في العلاقة بين أربيل وبغداد: 1. الملف المالي والنفط • أحد أكثر النقاط توترًا. • بغداد تضغط لتكون العائدات النفطية تحت إشراف الحكومة الاتحادية، وتطالب إقليم كردستان بتسليم واردات النفط إلى “شركة سومو”. • أربيل تطالب بضمانات لصرف حصتها من الموازنة الاتحادية بانتظام، والتي تُقطع أحيانًا لأسباب سياسية أو فنية. في الآونة الأخيرة، هناك محاولات للوصول إلى آلية ثابتة لصرف الرواتب وبيع النفط، ولكنها لا تزال متعثرة بسبب غياب الثقة المتبادلة. 2. التوازن السياسي • الإقليم لا يزال لاعبًا مهمًا في تشكيل الحكومات المركزية. • لكن هناك تراجع في وحدة الخطاب الكردي بين الحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني والاتحاد الوطني الكردستاني، ما أضعف موقف الإقليم تجاه بغداد. • حكومة السوداني تسعى لإبقاء العلاقات “تحت السيطرة” دون تصعيد، خاصة مع وجود قضايا أمنية وسياسية أكبر في المحيط الإقليمي. 3. العامل الإقليمي والدولي • التوترات الإقليمية (خصوصًا إيران-أمريكا) تنعكس على الوضع في كردستان، خصوصًا مع وجود قوات أمريكية، واستهدافات متكررة من قبل إيران أو جماعات مرتبطة بها. • تركيا تلعب دورًا متزايدًا في الإقليم اقتصاديًا وأمنيًا، وهذا يزعج بعض القوى في بغداد. 4. الملف الأمني • ملف سنجار، وقوات البيشمركة، ومناطق المادة 140 (المتنازع عليها) ما زالت تشكل قنابل موقوتة. • لم يتم حتى الآن تفعيل اتفاقات أمنية واقعية تضمن مشاركة فعلية بين الجيش العراقي والبيشمركة في هذه المناطق. إلى أين تتجه العلاقة؟ بصراحة، نحو أحد سيناريوهين: 1. إدارة الخلاف وليس حله • ستستمر الخلافات، لكن يتم إدارتها دون انفجار. • بقاء خطوط الاتصال السياسية مفتوحة رغم التصعيد الإعلامي. • صفقات مؤقتة بين حكومتي الإقليم والمركز لضمان استمرار الرواتب والنفط. 2. تفاقم التوتر إذا ساءت البيئة الإقليمية • في حال تصاعد الصراع الإقليمي أو حدوث أزمة مالية داخل العراق، قد يتجدد الضغط على الإقليم وتظهر دعوات للانفصال أو في المقابل تهديدات اتحادية أشد. خلاصة العلاقة بين أربيل وبغداد تتجه إلى مزيد من التعقيد القابل للإدارة، ما لم تحدث مفاجآت إقليمية أو انهيارات سياسية داخلية. العلاقة لن تصل إلى قطيعة تامة، لكنها لن تشهد تحسّنًا جذريًا ما دامت الملفات الكبرى (النفط، الميزانية، المناطق المتنازع عليها، دور البيشمركة) لم تُحل بطريقة مؤسساتية ودائمة. وسنحتاج تحليل عن دور الأحزاب أو موقف جهات معينة في هذه الأزمة (مثل الحشد الشعبي، أو الحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني، أو الأطراف الإقليمية كتركيا وإيران). 📰 • Erbil Imposes Its Will on Baghdad in the Battle Over Oil and Salaries • Erbil has imposed its will on Baghdad in the latest chapter of their relationship, and the prevailing sentiment is that the Erbil model will ultimately prevail. The relationship between Erbil and Baghdad is a delicate balance marked by persistent challenges and cautious compromises. Central to the tension is the contested oil and financial file: Baghdad insists on federal control of oil revenues through SOMO, while Erbil demands reliable, timely budget payments—a cycle hindered by deep mistrust and stalled mechanisms. Politically, the Kurdish region’s influence in Baghdad is weakened by KDP-PUK divisions, even as Prime Minister Al-Sudani seeks stability amid regional unrest. Geopolitical dynamics further complicate matters: U.S.-Iran tensions and Turkey’s expanding economic and security presence in Kurdistan unsettle Baghdad’s calculations. Security concerns remain, with unresolved disputes in Sinjar, the Peshmerga’s role, and contested territories under Article 140 causing friction and missed chances for Iraqi-Peshmerga coordination. Looking ahead, the relationship faces either continued crisis management—fragile, temporary agreements keeping salaries and oil flowing—or heightened tensions if regional instability or financial pressures rise, risking renewed Kurdish secession calls or stronger federal crackdowns. Though outright conflict seems unlikely, progress remains elusive without durable, institutional solutions for oil revenues, budget disbursements, disputed lands, and security cooperation. This saga also demands closer scrutiny of influential actors like the Popular Mobilization Forces, Kurdish parties, and regional powers such as Turkey and Iran, whose roles could tip the fragile balance at any moment. #عدسات_سياسية #أخبار #سياسة #تحليلات_سياسية 🌐 وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي: ➤ Twitter: https://twitter.com/omarabdulsatar ➤ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/omar.abdulsattar1

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