#會員影片限時公開 【摩王想兩下】〈跟著大錢走〉EP3:壽險公司的錢,現在在怕什麼?高利率、IFRS 與資產重配|#摩王 #王鴻嬪

摩王想兩下 December 16, 2025
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摩王想兩下

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《摩王想兩下》本集直擊: 壽險資產負債表失衡中——誰能接住 2026 的「長期訂單」? 談 2026 的市場風險, 不能只看股市漲跌、也不能只看外資進出, 而是要回到 真正承接長期風險的資金池——壽險公司。 本集摩王,從壽險的資產負債表出發, 帶你看清這股「慢、但很重」的資金,正在被什麼力量重新塑形。 這一集,我們要破解最核心的現實: 🔹 壽險不是在拚績效,而是在撐一張 20~30 年的資產負債表 你看到的是一張保單; 壽險看到的,是 未來二、三十年必須兌現的現金流承諾。 資產怎麼配,不是為了今年報酬, 而是能不能在很長的時間裡,把帳一筆一筆填平。 🔹 高利率+IFRS+監理,把壽險推離舒適圈 利率快速上升,不只是「利息變高」那麼簡單, 而是用市場價格,重新幫壽險 打一次成績單。 在 IFRS 新準則下, 過去可以「先不認」的波動, 現在必須攤在陽光下。 結果是: 壽險開始重新檢視久期、信用風險與資本占用, 從「追收益」轉向「撐得久」。 🔹 資產重配的方向,決定誰能成為市場的穩健靠山 在新的環境下,壽險資金正慢慢收斂到三個方向: 1)債券:回到高評等、長天期、久期可控的標的 2)替代資產:基建、再生能源、私募信貸,取代過度擁擠的不動產 3)股權:不追故事,重視現金流與防禦性 能提供 長約、穩定、可預測現金流 的資產, 才有機會拿到壽險的長期訂單。 🔔 本集重點 2026 年,市場真正的底層力量, 不是情緒、不是題材, 而是這些被迫「很認真算帳」的長期資金。 當壽險被迫重新做好資產負債管理, 我們每一個投資人,也該問自己一句: 我有沒有一張自己的資產負債表? 我的風險,撐得過下一個十年嗎?

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