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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com It's easy to feel confused these days. With the stock market at all-time highs, some analysts predict this bull market has a lot longer to run as the business-friendly policies of the new Administration start adding tailwinds to the economy. Others see economic growth as imbalanced, at best, and worry that overall the trend for 2026 is downwards, risking recession and a material market correction. So, which is it? For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David concludes the market is in a major price bubble not unlike the DotCom era, and advises investors to build/maintain liquidity within (at least) part of their portfolio in order to weather the bubble's bursting as well as to have dry powder to deploy at attractive valuations when it does. #bubble #marketcorrection #bearmarket 0:00 - Economy Flatlining: Soft Data Shows Stagnation, Not Health 2:15 - Growth Consensus vs. Reality: Atlanta Fed 3.9% vs. Surveys Near Zero 5:37 - Beige Book Insights: Only 18% of Economy Expanding—Lowest Since 2020 8:02 - AI Boom Camouflage: CapEx Drives 18% Growth, Rest Stagnates 8:49 - Labor Market Sputter: ADP Negative, Revisions Reveal Weakness 10:02 - Housing Deflation: Case-Shiller Negative 5 Months—Never Ends Well 12:11 - Manufacturing Slump: ISM Below 50 Despite AI Tailwinds 12:58 - K-Shaped Trap: AI Concentration Masks Broader Weakness 15:50 - AI Overcapacity: Late 1990s Parallels—Spending Peaks Loom 19:09 - Bubble Metrics: CAPE at 40, 2SD Event—Second Largest on Record 22:25 - Tech Bubble Echo: Microsoft/Cisco Crashed 60-80% in Mild Recession 28:29 - Credit Trigger: Tight Spreads Widen—Bubble Burst Catalyst 29:01 - Fiscal Peak 2026: Big Beautiful Bill Adds Just 50bps—Then Fades 30:14 - Trade/Immigration Headwinds: China Tariffs, Labor Supply Constrains 31:09 - Bond Market Canary: Yields Below Fed Funds Signal Risk-Off 33:08 - Wealth Effect Mirage: Savings Rate Dive Masks Income Decline 34:54 - Sentiment Divergence: Real Economy Fears vs. Stock Bullishness 52:27 - Inequality Extremes: Reagan Tax Cuts Sparked K-Shape—Now Unstable 1:03:09 - Strategy: Sell Calls, Rotate Defensive—Bonds for 10% Return _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.