The Cruel Math Says Most Investors Will Lose Money From Here | Danielle Park

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Well, 2025 draws to an end in just a few weeks. What should we expect, especially in terms of the markets, in 2026? To peer into the future, we have the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com Danielle warns that valuations are so stretched in the markets now that average annual returns are likely to be negative over the next 1, 3, 5 and 10-year periods -- risking a lost decade for investors. #marketcorrection #bearmarket #housingmarket 0:00 – “We’re running a casino with better lighting” – why macro & fundamentals have been ignored 5:43 – Debt is a four-letter word: the 15-year zero-rate anomaly magnified everything 8:31 – Post-GFC bailouts chose speculation over reform – the root of today’s mess 12:59 – Is there any path to rebalancing without a real crisis? Danielle: “I’m afraid not” 15:17 – Gambling legalization + financialization turned society into short-term speculators 18:53 – Retail investors have never been more over-exposed to equities (especially retirees) 21:57 – 10-year Treasury stuck at ~4.1% – “higher for longer” is already here 22:42 – Canadian housing: real prices down 25% since 2022 peak – still not done 25:32 – 31% of Canadian mortgages reset in 2026 at 2–3× higher rates 27:17 – Even lower mortgage rates haven’t saved Canadian prices – U.S. take note 30:05 – Melody Wright 38–50% U.S. house-price drop scenario – Danielle’s reaction 31:31 – U.S. home prices still ~5× median income – “still have considerable downside” 35:47 – Massive pent-up supply: unsold inventory approaching GFC highs + Boomer downsizing wave 38:42 – Airbnb/VRBO collapse flooding rental markets – rents now falling fast 41:46 – Oil & commodities: deflationary forces winning despite wars and AI hype 44:46 – AI/data-center buildout already rolling over in non-residential investment 47:51 – Credit cycle turning: student loans, autos, credit cards all spiking delinquencies 50:00 – Stock valuations (CAPE over 35): historically 100% negative forward returns 1–10 yrs 53:05 – Global stocks-to-GDP at 2000 & 2021 bubble extremes 56:01 – Gold & silver after huge runs: parabolic, overbought, momentum-chaser driven 59:06 – Danielle’s core rules: never over 5% in one stock, over 10% in one sector – rebalance quarterly 1:01:24 – Cash + intermediate treasuries (4–7 yr) are core holdings right now 1:03:41 – “You must define your buy targets in advance” – wait for real value, not dip-buy hope 1:06:17 – Final message: “This is a good game played slow” – patience + discipline will win _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.