Bullish For Rest Of 2025, But Bearish For 2026 | Michael Howell

Video Description

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com In his appearance at Thoughtful Money's Spring online conference back in March, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, warned of an oncoming liquidity air pocket. Which was why the market's subsequent plunge of nearly 20% in the following month wasn't a surprise to him. So, where does he see liquidity headed for the rest of 2025? To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself. #liquidity #debt #federalreserve 0:00 - Welcome and Liquidity Assessment 3:30 - Global Liquidity Chart Since 2010 5:02 - Liquidity Since Early 2024 7:03 - Global Liquidity Cycle Since 1960s 8:38 - Debt to Liquidity Ratio and Crises 10:04 - Debt Refinancing as Core of Financial System 11:39 - Bond Volatility (MOVE Index) 13:11 - Repo Market Collateral Shortage Measure 15:02 - US Treasury Yield Stability 16:29 - Business Confidence Surveys and Cycles 18:42 - Liquidity Regimes and Asset Classes 21:21 - Current Position in Liquidity Cycle 23:38 - Comparison to 1980s Liquidity Cycle 26:10 - Central Banks Easing Policies 28:02 - Chinese Liquidity Injections 30:03 - Fed Rate Cuts and Liquidity Impact 32:03 - Financial Repression vs. Monetary Inflation 34:22 - Not QE/QE and Yield Curve Control 37:36 - Treasury-Based QE and Short-Dated Debt 40:02 - Math of Government Budget Constraint 42:03 - Monetary Inflation and Hedges 43:17 - China Money Printing and Commodities 45:21 - Wrapping Up and Conference Announcement 47:01 - Tactical Asset Allocation Advice 50:01 - Parting Advice on Watching Policy Actions _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guar