Can The Rally In Stocks Continue Into Year End? | Lance Roberts

Video Description

TIME'S NEARLY UP! LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference At this point, the stock market is being driven nearly entirely by sentiment and momentum. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the odds are good that will continue as the allure of S&P 7,000 entices investors to keep buying dips through the remainder of the year. He and I discuss the technical reasons for this, as well as the impact of the government shutdown, the latest disappointing ADP jobs report, bonds and Lance's firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video. #bullmarket #jobsreport #shutdown 0:00 - Shutdown's Impact on Data and Markets 2:06 - Historical Market Performance During Shutdowns 3:00 - Debunking Shutdown Myths: What Gets Paid 3:28 - Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending Explained 4:46 - Potential for Deeper Cuts This Time 5:48 - Non-Essential Workers: Time to Trim Government? 6:28 - Shutdown History and Brinkmanship 7:19 - Firing Government Employees: Challenges and Lawsuits 8:47 - ADP and Paychex: Weak Job Signals 9:51 - BLS Revisions and Correlation Breakdown 10:19 - Flaws in Surveys and Birth-Death Model 11:24 - Simpler Employment Metrics: 12-Month Average 12:25 - Shutdown's Negligible Market Impact 13:01 - Chart: Shutdowns vs. Market Trends 14:00 - Crosscurrents: Strong GDP vs. Weak Jobs 16:32 - Market at All-Time Highs: Raise Year-End Target? 18:10 - Momentum Drivers: Buybacks and Rebalancing 19:08 - Seasonal Weakness: October Volatility 19:45 - Five Straight Up Months: Correction Ahead? 20:23 - Thematic Models 21:59 - April Lows Reset: Swift Buying Since 23:14 - Hope Framework: Goldilocks Economy Ahead? 24:08 - Broadening Growth, Lower Inflation, Rates 25:24 - Jobs Weakening Just Right for Fed Cuts 26:10 - Low Oil Prices as Tailwind 26:27 - 2026 Outlook: Better Growth, Market Recovery 27:30 - Wall Street Consensus: Earnings Shift to S&P 493 28:36 - Why 493 Earnings Lag Despite Growth? 29:15 - AI Capex Ripple: $3T to $15T Activity? 29:50 - Risk of Disappointing Expectations 31:46 - Stronger Dollar: Headwind for Multinationals 33:10 - Dollar Rally: 90% Probability Next 12-18 Months 33:46 - Consensus Short Dollar: Contrarian Setup 35:04 - Gold Correlation: Prepare for Headwinds 35:38 - Policy Tailwinds: Deregulation Boost? 36:36 - Modest Growth: 2-2.5%, Not Gangbusters 38:08 - Debt/Deficits Impede: No Return to Goldilocks? 39:42 - Valuations Matter Long-Term: Ford PE Highs 40:49 - Three 20% Years: Momentum Until Break 42:12 - Irrational Exuberance Echoes: Late 90s Parallels 43:42 - Earnings Projections: Highest Deviation Ever 44:01 - Bigger Runup, Bigger Correction? 44:19 - 1996-99 Similarities: Bubble Inflation Tactics 50:46 - AI Bubble Calls: Round-Tripping Capital 51:55 - Emperor's New Clothes: Revenue Reality Check 53:47 - Sentiment Drives: Don't Miss the Ride 54:46 - Timing Corrections: Focus on Flows 56:02 - Advice: Work with a Financial Adviser 56:53 - FOMO vs. Fear: Squeezed Investor Dilemma 58:36 - Onboarding Strategy: Half In, Dollar Cost Average 1:00:04 - March Example: Half Positions Hedge Decline 1:01:22 - Seasonal Strength: Buy in Six Parts 1:03:00 - Managing Risk: Rebalance, Take Profits 1:04:23 - Bonds: Yields Tracking to 2.5% Long-Term 1:05:36 - CPI Shelter Lag: Dramatic Drop Next Year 1:06:53 - Stephen Moran: Lower Rates Ahead 1:08:35 - Tariffs Minor: Rent Drives Inflation Down 1:10:40 - Trades Update: Rebalanced Models, Added Meta 1:11:58 - Rant: Speaking the Unspoken _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.