Did The Market Just Break? | Lance Roberts

Video Description

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The stock market experienced a massive reversal after Nvidia announced another blowout earnings report. Nvidia, the S&P and the Nasdaq all shot higher at first...but then gravity took over. On Thursday, Nvidia opened up nearly +6% but then fell to close the day down more than -3%. The major indices closed in the red, as well. Wall Street had pinned its hopes on Nvidia jump-starting the market back into rally mode. That clearly didn't happen. Does this mark a turning point? Where guidance, no matter how fantastic, can no longer muster the buying frenzy that we've seen for years now in AI stocks? Or, is this just a temporary pullback? Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest jobs data, whether the Fed is likely to cut interest rates next month, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. #nvidia #aibubble #ratecut 00:00 – Thursday’s massive intraday reversal – what actually happened 03:48 – Nvidia delivered monster earnings & guidance but still closed down 3 % 06:33 – Too early to call this anything more than garden-variety pullback 10:53 – RIA just launched an Oil & Gas thematic portfolio (details later) 12:04 – Massive government + corporate spending on AI does NOT automatically = huge profits for every company 17:23 – Technical analysis = picture of what the entire market is thinking right now 25:52 – Detailed S&P technical walk-through (50-day, 100-day, 200-day, RSI, MACD, deviations) 27:38 – We just ended one of the longest stretches ever above the 50-day moving average 29:19 – Currently decently oversold → expect a bounce (maybe to ~6700); sell/rebalance into strength 30:47 – Moving averages act like gravity – mean-reversion is inevitable, timing is the hard part 33:07 – Long stretch above 50-day does NOT require equal time below – markets rise over time 37:45 – This pullback mirrors every other 2024 correction (April, summer 10 % drop, etc.) 42:05 – If we bounce to 6700, fail, then break 100-day → “we got problems” and will cut exposure hard 43:12 – Bitcoin technicals: very oversold, decent support ~$76-77k, possible trade bounce to $100k 45:27 – Wall Street created Bitcoin ETFs so they could short them against retail 47:48 – Bitcoin now fully centralized – volatility will eventually be arbitraged away 51:12 – September jobs “beat” is ancient, heavily revised data – real-time trends still weakening 53:14 – AI data-center capex is masking broad economic slowdown underneath 55:51 – Underlying economy (outside AI) is clearly decelerating – big concern for 2026 earnings 1:01:16 – 2025-2026 small/mid-cap earnings explosion assumptions make zero sense given consumer weakness 1:06:22 – Private credit concerns rising – still early, but opacity + covenant-lite loans = growing risk 1:14:02 – Private credit blow-ups so far are small vs. 2008 subprime, but counterparty risk could still spread 1:22:28 – New RIA Oil & Gas thematic portfolio launched – long-term power-gen + supply/demand thesis 1:26:26 – Not a “buy everything today” trade – dollar-cost average over 12-24 months 1:37:10 – Google weekly chart: 3 standard deviations above mean → taking profits soon 1:43:30 – Year-end checklist: RMDs, tax-loss harvesting, charitable giving (donor-advised funds, stock donations) 1:51:06 – No trades this week – portfolios only down ~1.5 % vs. market -3.5 % – well balanced _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.