Ed Dowd: USA Facing A 'Toxic Cocktail' of Trouble In Stocks, Credit, Trade & Housing

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PURCHASE THE REPLAY OF THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL CONFERENCE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Today's guest suggests that for much of the past three years, the economy & financial markets have been boosted by a "sugar high" cocktail including prodigous fiscal stimulus from the government, massive AI capex outlays from the private sector, a wave of incremental consumer spending from waves of millions of illegal immigrants. But now he warns the sugar high is behind us. If true, what will the repercussion be? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome to the program for the first time Edward Dowd, founder of macroeconomic consulting & research firm Phinance Technologies. Follow Ed on X at @dowdedward Or at https://phinancetechnologies.com or https://www.eddowd.com #marketcorrection #recession #inflation 0:00 - Crossroads in Capital Markets 2:18 - Economy vs. Markets: Complete Disconnect & Real-World Trouble 2:25 - Jobs Data Fraud: Non-Farm Payrolls Revised Down ~1M 3:38 - QCEW Discovery: 7-Sigma Disparity Signals Incompetence or Fraud 6:02 - Immigration Stimulus: $500B-$1.5T Propped Up 2023-24 Economy 7:41 - Real Estate Floor Cracks: Rentals & Immigration Demand Reverses 8:18 - Credit Signals: Bonds Rally, High Yield Breaks, Regionals Roll Over 9:35 - Auto Sector Implosions: Subprime Lenders & Dealers Bankrupt 10:20 - Housing Indicators: Record Gap in Starts vs. Sales, Inventory Surges 11:09 - Multi-Tenant Overbuild: 70s-Level Boom for Illegal Immigration Now Sours 11:46 - Recap: Artificial Juicing Ends, Headwinds Build 13:38 - Valuation Concerns: Forward 10-Year Returns at Zero (Worse Since Feb) 15:07 - Toxic Mix: Real Estate, Trade Wars, Credit & Dotcom-Like AI Burst 16:29 - AI Reality Check: Declining Corporate Rollouts, Hallucination Errors 17:38 - Dotcom Parallels: Stranded Infrastructure, Capex-Revenue Mismatch 20:26 - Bitcoin vs. AI: No Pricing Mechanism, Insiders Selling Hand-Over-Fist 21:23 - Timing the Bust: Early? Just Like 1997 Dotcom Bears 22:04 - 1998-99 Backdrop: Demographics, Y2K, Globalization vs. Today's Mess 23:06 - Fed Pivot: Behind the Curve, Panic Cuts Incoming 24:05 - Ending Moves: Fantastical AI Press Releases (e.g., Oracle +30% on Hype) 25:24 - Bond Market Sniffs Recession: Yields Creep Lower on Deflation Fears 26:02 - Dollar Bullish: Debasement Trade Over, 4-Year Cycle Low in Sept 27:51 - Disinflation Ahead: Tariffs Deflationary, Not Inflationary 28:45 - China Woes: GDP 60% of US, Zero Growth Post-COVID, Exports Surge 31:14 - Global Liquidity Crunch: EMs (Argentina, S. Korea) Beg for Dollars 32:05 - Oil Canary: Down to $30, Signals China & Global Demand Collapse 32:53 - Oil Investment: Buy at $30-37 for Next Boom Cycle 33:57 - No Systemic Crisis Yet: 50% Stock Drawdown Possible, Then Flip Positive 35:48 - China's Crossroads: Needs Consumer Shift, Fears Own People Most 37:18 - Demographics Horror: Echo Boom by 2032, Then Decades of Despair 38:10 - Gold Outlook: Consolidates, Then to $10K by 2030; Tier 1 Capital Boost 41:32 - Recession Odds: 80-90% for 2026 (Q4 2025 Start?) 42:15 - Unemployment Spike: North of 5% by Next Year 43:38 - Fed Cuts: 50bps Next, Possible 100bps Panic on Credit Blowup 45:07 - Rate Cutting Mode: Like 2000 & 2007, Gravity Wins Despite Cuts 45:25 - Private Credit Risk: Opaque $1.5T Market, Fast Feedback Loops 48:36 - Investing Approach: De-lever, Raise Cash (Dry Powder for Lows) 50:12 - T-Bills Safe Haven: 3.9% Paid to Wait (Buffett Owns 5%) 51:48 - Societal Bifurcation: K-Shaped Economy Fuels Global Populism _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.