Prediction markets: can betting be good for the world?

Video Description

Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be interpreted as the probability that the underlying event will happen, therefore they provide an aggregate measure of what the market's participants believe. Prediction markets have been found to provide very accurate probabilities, and there have been interesting proposals to use them for improving institutional decision-making. In this video, we'll explore all of this and more. Examples of prediction platforms are: Augur and Polymarket (on the Ethereum blockchain), predictIt, the FTX crypto exchange, and Metaculus. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations 🟢Merch: https://rational-animations-shop.fourthwall.com/ 🔵 Channel membership: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join 🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 Discord: https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀LINKS & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Wikipedia on prediction markets (it's pretty good): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases, by David Rothschild: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40467652 Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (by Robin Hanson): http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.pdf Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (by Robin Hanson): https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html Augur: https://augur.net/ Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/ PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/ FTX: https://ft-x.info/ ElectionBettingOdds: https://electionbettingodds.com/ Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: https://youtu.be/LceY7nhi6j4 Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ BIG thanks to our patrons & members from the simple adder tier and above: abp Bleys Goodson Dawson Francisco Lillo marverati Matt Parlmer Michael Zimmermann no special person Trevyn Case William Deng Austin Cluff Connor Dang Griffith Daniel Cunningham FusionOak John Slape Mark Gongloff Matthew Brooks Neel Nanda rictic Robin Hanson Ryouta Takehiko Ashten The Platypus Bryan Egan Calvin McCarter Chris Chapin Craig Ludington Dan Wahl David Mc Florian Gabriel Ledung Jacob Van Buren Jeroen De Dauw JHeb Lars Osborne Logic Luke Freeman Meade Marmalade Nathan Nathan Fish Nicholas Kees Dupuis noggieB Raphaël Lévy Roboroger Sephiths Superslowmojoe Tim Duffy Z Lexi X Simson רם רינגל ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Script by: - Matthew Barnett - Emanuele Ascani Animation by: - Michela Biancini Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI