Should Canada Pivot to China? | TVO Today Live

Video Description

Amid unpredictable and often punishing tariffs levied by the United States, Canada looks to diversify its trade partners. Should that include a substantial pivot towards China? The Middle Kingdom with its 1.4 billion citizens presents a tantalizing market, but pursuing closer ties is far from a simple undertaking, especially after a deep freeze over the past several years and stiff tariffs in place between the two countries. After the first meeting between Prime Minister Carney and Chinese President Xi, a thaw looks inevitable. What form should it take and how deeply entwined should Canada become? Steve Paikin hosts a panel discussion for TVO Today Live to consider that, before a live audience at the historic St. Lawrence Hall in downtown Toronto. Guests include: Constantine Karayannopoulos, Canada China Business Council; Vina Nadjibulla, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; Mary Ng, former Minister of International Trade of Canada; and Lynette Ong, University of Toronto. 00:00 Intro 00:38 Introducing the panel: Constantine, Vina, Mary, Lynette 01:31 Tonight’s plan and key questions 02:02 Audience poll: Pivot to China? 02:41 Trade facts: Canada-China numbers and tariffs 03:12 How important is China as a trading partner? 04:11 Balancing trade with Canadian values 05:01 Constantine on trade and multilateralism 06:02 Vina on trade gaps and diversification 07:11 Risks of overdependence and national security 08:01 Lynette: Diversification and political partnerships 09:36 Historical context: Canada-China relations 10:19 Mary on pragmatic engagement and CPTPP 12:00 Trade agreements and diversification strategy 13:04 Prime Minister’s stance: Interests vs. values 14:09 China’s retaliation and weaponization of trade 15:16 Team Canada missions and business experience 16:30 Industrial strategy and critical minerals 18:12 Multilateralism vs. plurilateralism 20:15 Mark Carney’s Economist op-ed: Variable geometry 21:04 Canada as a middle power in a changing world 22:25 Building coalitions and preemptive guardrails 24:16 Overdependence lessons: Canola and seafood 25:10 Mandates for diversification and trade architecture 27:00 Canada’s current trade reach: 65% of global economy 28:01 Do they want to buy from us or just sell to us? 29:14 Framing engagement: Interests vs. values 30:05 Consumer benefits vs. industrial strategy 32:05 Tariffs on EVs and strategic choices 33:05 Midpoint recap and historical significance of venue 34:15 Does trade liberalize China? Lessons learned 36:03 Comparative advantage vs. industrial policy 38:05 Manipulation and market distortion concerns 39:06 Risks of retaliation from the U.S. 40:00 Canada’s choices: Who to partner with? 41:39 Critical minerals and EV supply chain gaps 43:29 Lack of refining capacity in Canada 45:03 Consumer welfare vs. producer lobbying 45:40 Risks of deeper engagement with China 47:00 Guardrails and screening mechanisms 48:19 Building coalitions for leverage 49:04 Public understanding and education 50:04 Learning from Australia’s approach 51:19 Variable geometry explained 53:08 Concentric circles for risk management 54:03 Canada’s readiness for selective engagement 55:02 Recognizing China’s power and strategic intent 56:01 Audience Q&A begins 58:00 Anti-Asian racism and historical context 59:35 Balancing trade and Canadian values 1:01:04 Managing compliance risks 1:02:07 Human rights and supply chain ethics 1:03:04 Conflating trade with political interference 1:04:13 Strategic dependencies and national security 1:06:01 Audience question: Navigating U.S.-China rivalry 1:07:08 Canada’s priorities: Resilience and innovation 1:08:18 Trade balance and China’s self-sufficiency goals 1:10:01 Industrial strategy and critical minerals 1:12:07 Which sectors should Canada prioritize? 1:13:03 AI, clean energy, and advanced tech opportunities 1:14:08 Final question: Is pivot worth the risk? 1:15:02 Closing audience poll TVO Today Live is an Ontario-based event series that convenes important discussions on the future of democracy. Guests include politicians, journalists and prominent public figures. This initiative is made possible through the support of The Wilson Foundation, whose mission is to strengthen and enrich Canada in education leadership, community, history and heritage, and public service. Learn more about TVO Today Live at https://tvo.me/TVO-Today-Live/ and sign up for email updates to get the latest information.