The Ukraine War After Kursk - Retreat, Lessons, Negotiations & The Coming Russian Offensive

Video Description

In August 2024, Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres of Russia's Kursk region in a surprise offensive. Now, more than six months later, the operation has mostly ended with a Ukrainian retreat to a small holding along the Ukrainian border. In this episode we look at the close of the campaign, lessons arising from it, and ask what might be coming next amidst U.S. lead negotiations and evidence of coming Russian offensive efforts. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Reading and Sourcing: Visually confirmed loss data generally per warspotting & Oryx as normal General territorial control mapping: https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.3382264/34.4551849 Percentage of regional control figures: https://www.warmapper.org/stats Kursk loss localisation figures: https://x.com/naalsio26 Loss distribution maps per Lostarmor: https://lostarmour.info/ defence mapping by @Playfra0 https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1907182777235112175 Civilian vehicle loss split by @AndrewPerpetua https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1902364609446564027 wire laying UGV https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232455456625103https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232455456625103 Carlson - Witkoff interview reported transcript https://detector.media/withoutsection/article/239318/2025-03-23-transcript-of-steve-witkoffs-interview-on-the-tucker-carlson-show/ Reuters on Witkoff https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-envoys-embrace-russian-demands-worries-republicans-us-allies-2025-04-11/ The Birds becoming a brigade https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/11/ukrainian-drone-warfare-pioneers-magyars-birds-to-expand-threefold-into-full-fledged-brigade/ Reporting on Kursk withdrawal https://kyivindependent.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-ukraines-kursk-gambit/ https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-positions-in-kursk-oblast-crucial-for-possible-negotiations-blinken-says/ Russia planning to increase troops in Ukraine by 150,000 https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-grouping-in-ukraine-by-150-000-soldiers-in-2025-ukraines-official-says/ Ramstein pledges https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2q323lg3o Brent crude price https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oilv Urals reaches $53 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/russia-s-flagship-oil-urals-tumbles-toward-50-in-global-rout?embedded-checkout=truev Russian Recruitment & Bonus Payments https://x.com/jakluge/status/1911371520485568779 https://vk.com/wall-150272757_54052 https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-beating-military-recruitment-goals-ukraine-war-bonuses-new-laws-2025-3 TASS on Russian UAS operations, Rubicon & Kursk https://tass.com/politics/1898715 The Encirclement claim https://kyivindependent.com/trump-claims-he-asked-putin-to-spare-surrounded-ukrainian-troops/ Ukrainian reporting on M2 repairs https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrainian-defense-forces-master-and-speed-up-m2-bradley-repairs/ Other featured reports https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-officials-eye-longer-road-ukraine-peace-frustration-mounts-2025-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/ https://kyivindependent.com/trump-officials-say-ceasefire-unlikely-in-coming-months-reuters-reports/ https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-russian-officials-want-teenagers-voting-sham-referendums-occupied-ukraine-2022-9 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/10/russian-advances-in-ukraine-slow-down-despite-growing-force-size https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-spring-fighting-offensive-ceasefire-talks-49ee814cc4a8416c444ab7deae42488c https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-growing-military-strength-is-an-underrated-factor-in-peace-talks/ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/03/russias-real-wages-up-65-in-january-as-growth-slows-a88590 Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions. Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character. Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:05 — Kursk Closes Out 00:11:37 — Tactical Observations 00:28:16 — Evaluating Kursk 00:35:24 — Signs of More to Come 00:45:51 — a Russian Offensive? 00:45:59 — Motive 00:47:58 — Urgency 00:50:51 — Means 00:58:25 — Will It Be Enough? 01:00:59 — Channel Update