We Have Entered the "Speculation" Phase of the Market Cycle | Michael Howell

Video Description

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why. Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles. In this interview we cover: - How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity - Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year - What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows - How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle - Why China is driving gold prices higher If you want to understand the forces actually moving markets, click play and keep watching. Learn more about Michael Howell here: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Read Michael Howell’s Substack Capital Wars here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Follow Michael Howell on X (Twitter) here: https://x.com/crossbordercap Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://tinyurl.com/4d8r98fx Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Follow Ed D’Agostino on X (Twitter): https://www.x.com/EdDAgostino Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:45 – Lessons from Salomon Brothers 06:07 – Debt/Liquidity Cycle 08:30 – Bubbles and crises 11:58 – Where are we now in the cycle? 20:38 – The role of Treasury issuance 33:40 – A very abnormal economic cycle 36:14 – Gold’s role 42:10 – Global monetization 47:15 – Does China’s debt matter?