Why China will not win the trade war (big picture)

Video Description

Advertising sponsor: Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 20% discount at https://economist.com/moneymacro Further reading mentioned in the video: American tariffs are starting to hammer Chinese exporters: https://www.economist.com/china/2025/04/29/american-tariffs-are-starting-to-hammer-chinese-exporters The trouble with MAGA’s manufacturing dream: https://www.economist.com/business/2025/04/28/the-trouble-with-magas-manufacturing-dream Which stockmarkets have benefited from the chaos on Wall Street?: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/04/28/which-stockmarkets-have-benefited-from-the-chaos-on-wall-street If you appreciate the research, consider buying me a 'coffee' at https://ko-fi.com/moneymacro or supporting long-term for membership benefits via: https://www.patreon.com/moneymacro WANT AN IN-DEPTH INDUSTRIAL POLICY MASTERCLASS? △ https://school.moneymacro.net/p/industrial-policy-masterclass LIKE CHATTING ECON WITH ME? △ Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/joerischasfoort △ Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeri-schasfoort/ △ I have a private Discord server for Senior and Chief economist Patrons / members. SOURCES: I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text. https://www.moneymacro.rocks/2025-05-08-trade-war-winner/ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:08 The rise and fall of global hegemons 10:22 China Wins 14:05 US wins 16:20 Likely scenario 17:19 Conclusion + sponsor Attribution: Music by Epidemic Sound: http://nebula.tv/epidemic Thank you to AP Archive for access to their archival footage. Stock footage and others clips by Getty Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort