成功学有用吗？幸存者偏差，一个活着就该明白的事！李永乐老师聊聊大牌球星的身价
彭导分享
•
June 10, 2018
彭导分享
@pdsharingAbout
一个典型的科学爱好者~ 个人博客：pdsharing.com
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Video Description
高考刚刚结束 世界杯马上就要开始了 有人看到的这些天价球员 梅西 C罗 就说呀 唉 我运气不好 没有当一个踢足球 否则我现在就像他们一样有钱了 事实上真的是这样吗 今天我们来讨论一下这个问题 我们首先从高考全国二卷一个作文题目开始讲解 二战 " 期间，为了加强对战机的防护，英美军方调查了作战后幸存飞机上弹痕的分布，决定哪里弹痕多就加强哪里。然而统计学家沃德力排众议，指出更应该注意弹痕少的部位，因为这些部位受到重创的战机，很难有机会返航，而这部分数据被忽略了。事实证明，沃德是正确的。 为充分解答这个问题 得先明白幸存者偏差是什么 幸存者偏差的意思就是说 你只考察了幸存者所满足的特征 这并不能得出一个有说服力的结论来 这个结论能解释很多现象 比如 淹死的拜神者 用了20年不钝的刀 验证药物疗效的双房实验 比如，我们看到世界杯上那些天价球员 梅西 C罗 内马尔他们，就以为踢足球都会很有钱 但事实上中国许多球员工资还不到10万元 还有许多人研究成功学 从许多成功人士身上找到共同点 但却忽视了那些也具有同样特征的失败者 等等 反正就是 幸存者偏差，一个活着就该明白的事！
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