Vanguard, Schwab & JPMorgan See a Different Decade Ahead!
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In this episode we’re unpacking why Vanguard, Schwab, and JPMorgan are signaling that the next decade in markets will not look like the last one. These aren’t opinions from random pundits — these are the long-term forecasts and outlooks from major asset managers that every retiree and long-term investor needs to understand before they lock in their strategy. Key takeaways you’ll learn: • Vanguard’s Capital Markets Model shows muted annualized return projections for U.S. stocks over the next 10 years, with expectations well below the historic double-digit returns many investors got used to in the last decade. That means recalibrating return assumptions is now part of planning. Vanguard +1 • Schwab’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations points to modest forecasted returns for equities and bonds over the next ten years, reflecting elevated valuations and macro risks. Schwab Brokerage • JPMorgan’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions lay out a landscape shaped by shifting fundamentals — with returns for a classic 60/40 portfolio still positive but not historic, and with new forces such as inflation volatility, global fragmentation, and alternative allocations gaining structural relevance. J.P. Morgan This episode isn’t about fear. It’s about expectation management backed by the data Vanguard, Schwab, and JPMorgan publish for institutional and individual investors alike. If you’re planning retirement withdrawals, setting safe withdrawal rates, or adjusting your asset allocation for the coming decade, this is your reality check. Resources & links: • Vanguard Capital Markets Model 10-year return projections: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html Vanguard • Schwab 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations Schwab Brokerage • JPMorgan 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA): https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma-full-report.pdf J.P. Morgan Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:15 Why the “next decade” looks different 3:30 Vanguard’s muted return projections 6:10 Schwab’s long-term expectations 8:45 JPMorgan’s structural expectations 12:00 What this means for retirees 15:30 Practical takeaways and action steps Subscribe for more boiled-down insights on retirement risk, long-term returns, and investment reality checks.
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