Michael Pento: A Coming Credit Crisis Is The Most Likely Trigger For A Market Plunge

Video Description

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference When today's guest was last on this channel back in July, he warned that a 'triumvirate" of three massive asset price bubbles -- in credit, real estate and stocks -- threatened to take down our fragile economy and dash the retirement hopes for millions. Since then, the bubbles have only expanded. Will they expand further -- or pop -- in 2026? To find out, we have the great good fortune to welcome money manager Michael Pento back to the program. #recession #marketcorrection #marketcrash 0:00 - Pento on Triumvirate Bubbles Threatening Economy & Retirements 2:21 - Bubble Assessment: Credit, Real Estate & Stocks at Record-Breaking Extremes 3:49 - Early Fractures: First Brands Defaults & China Tariff Tremors 5:20 - Credit as Catalyst: 35 Years Insist Bubble Bursts via Insolvency/Inflation 6:21 - Reserves Explosion: $3.5T Fed Liquidity—Debt Monetization's Core 9:22 - Fed Balance Sheet: $6.2T Expanding in October—QT Panic Reversal 10:19 - Credit Unglued: Draghi's Pledge Fails vs. U.S. Inflation/Insolvency Mix 14:16 - Reserves Dynamics: Rate of Change Drives '18-19 Repo Echoes 15:48 - Fed Preempts: Cuts & QE Restart to Foam Runway Before Fracture 19:00 - Real Funds Rate: Positive Peak Fades—Recessions Trail Spikes 23:14 - M2 Surge: Vertical Post-2000—Fed's Bubble-Building Machine 24:37 - Leverage Loans Peak: $400B Q3 Record—Auto/Student/Private Perils 26:35 - Non-Financial Debt: $77.9T/256% GDP—Historic Overhang 27:39 - Housing Affordability: 7x Income Ratio—Worse Than Bubble Peak 30:46 - MAG7 Dominance: 34% S&P Record—Overvalued/Leveraged Extreme 32:47 - Crash Scenario: Credit Break → Truncated Plunge → Reflation Attempt 36:04 - Gold Sector 1: De-Dollarization & Negative Rates Drive Upside 41:05 - Gold Dip Caveat: Long Bond Spike Pressures, But Hold 5% Physical 44:43 - Private Credit Risk: Malinvestment Cycle—Illiquid Traps in Recession 49:23 - Portfolio Now: Net Long India/Australia/IBM/A&D with Hedges 53:05 - Closing: PentoPort.com for Model-Guided Management & Insights _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.