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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com When you're uncertain, they say to seek the counsel of those smarter than you. Well, amongst the many experts I interview on this channel, Michael Green is definitely in the top cohort intellectual horsepower-wise. Mike is portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management which holds over $6 billion in client assets. And today, we'll tap his latest thinking on the stock market, the credit markets, the economy, and whatever else 2026 holds for investors that he thinks important. Mike's research convinces him that passive capital flows are the single greatest factor that determine where any given stock -- and the overall indices, too -- will head. So, what's his outlook for those passive flows? Watch this video to find out. Follow Mike at https://www.simplify.us/ On X at @profplum99 Or on Substack at https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ #passiveinvesting #capitalflows #marketcorrection 0:00 - Concerns About Private Equity 3:52 - Comparison of Public and Private Equity Performance 4:46 - Impact on Labor Market from Private Equity Failures 5:25 - Parallels to 2007-2008 Housing Crisis 7:05 - Potential for Cascading Credit Contagion Like 2008 9:19 - Personal Concern Level on Private Markets 10:21 - Uncertainty in Trump Administration's Bailout Approach 11:48 - Bailout-First Mentality and New Administration's Stance 12:37 - AI Tied to National Security and Bailout Risks 15:03 - Likelihood of Material AI Equity Repricing 15:53 - Similarities to Dotcom Cycle in AI Buildout 17:11 - Deflationary Nature of AI Productivity 19:23 - Deflationary Impact Reducing Expected Profits 20:50 - Potential Repricing Impact on Stocks and Economy 22:36 - Possibility of AI Repricing Without Compromising Passive Bid 24:27 - Permutations of How Market Dynamics Continue 25:38 - Argument for Riding Passive Flows Until Break 27:22 - Isolating the Passive Factor in Markets 30:02 - Passive Factor Explaining Excess Returns Over Decade 31:31 - Mean Reversion vs. Expansion in GMO Forecasts 33:11 - Research on Manager Reactions to Valuations 35:00 - Shift to Mean Expansion with Passive Growth 36:16 - Dominant Force of Passive Flows Overriding Cycles 40:24 - Allocating Capital at Simplify in This Environment 42:38 - Fiduciary Obligation to Exploit Passive Factor 46:31 - Commodities in a "Land War" with Vanguard 48:32 - Basketball Analogy with LeBron as Passive Robot 51:04 - Personal Anecdote on Unearned Wealth from Tech Companies 58:08 - Hope for Humanity and Younger Generation 1:02:12 - Introduction to New Harbor Financial Segment _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.